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Atrticle Source: http://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com
Article Launch: February 25, 2008
By: Joe Monahan
The stakes are getting higher in the crowded contest for the GOP nomination for the southern congressional seat. Campaign operatives for restaurant chain owner and attorney Ed Tinsley confirm he recently ponied up $200,000 of personal cash for his campaign. He had told us in November he was ready to come with the money, but did not do so until after fourth quarter financial reports were filed. Combined with outside money he has raised, Tinsley has now breached the $500,000 mark, the first candidate to do so no not only in the south but also in the two other open NM US House seats. And before these primaries are over, we could be heading into the financial stratosphere.
"This could be a million dollar primary...This is a large district and campaigning in all its forms has gotten more expensive," a Tinsley operative told me as I caffeined up at my neighborhood Starbucks..
Tinsley owns a ranch in Lincoln County and he and his wife also have oil interests. Throwing out the $1 million dollar figure could be seen as a ploy to intimidate other candidates, but with over half a million raised and the campaign yet to hit full stride, the figure seems entirely possible, if not probable. If it happens, we believe it will be the first time in state history that a House primary candidate has become a million dollar man.
The man looking most closely at Tinsley's ATM card is GOP Lincoln County rancher Aubrey Dunn Jr., son of the legendary former state senator of the same name. He has put up $300,000 of his own cash to take on Tinsley but has not had the same success at raising outside money. Will Dunn have to ante up even more to stay at the table?
NO SUSPENSE, BUT EXPECTATIONS
Much of the suspense has been drained out of the March 15th pre-primary conventions that both political parities will conduct. That's because Big Bill says he will sign legislation that will allow a candidate to get on the June primary ballot even if he or she does not win 20% of the delegates at the convention. Still, there is the expectations game to play, and playing it they are.
In the south, financial big feet Tinsley and Dunn are seen easily reaching the 20% mark. If there is room for a third candidate, it will be probably be Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman or Earl Greer of T or C. As we said, if a candidate does not get the 20% they can gather extra petition signatures and still get on the ballot. The main impact of a poor showing at the pre-primary could be financial. A weak performance and potential donors may question the credibility of a candidacy. There is also the burden of history. No candidate who has failed to secure 20% of a party's pre-primay delegates has ever gone on to win the June primary.
On the Dem side for the southern district, operatives for Hobbs oilman Harry Teague are lowering expectations for his pre-primary showing, saying he will easily get the required 20% but they expect 29 year old Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley to finish first They say that's because McCamley has been in the race and working since the middle of last year while Teague has been in just a couple of months. Still, McCamley who lags Teague significantly in the money department, will try to make some hay over any first place convention showing. And he should. The other Dem southern candidates trail far behind.
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